With just a day to go before the United States midterm elections on November 3, the country’s political temperature has risen sharply. The vote, the first nationwide test of President Donald Trump’s second term, will decide the balance of power in both chambers of Congress, the leadership of dozens of states and the direction of federal legislation for the next two years.
National polls show Democrats ahead in the race for the House of Representatives, while seven Senate contests remain fiercely competitive and several governorships could change hands.
Nearly 50 million Americans have already cast their ballots. The central question is whether Democrats can break the Republican hold on Congress, or whether Trump’s party will retain its grip.
Voters will elect all 435 members of the House, 35 senators, including 33 regular seats and two special elections, and governors in 36 states. Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the 100-member Senate. Democrats hold 45, and the two independents, Bernie Sanders and Angus King, caucus with them, giving Democrats an effective 47. To win the chamber, Democrats need a net gain of at least four seats. In the House, current membership stands at 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one independent aligned with Republicans and two vacancies. A majority requires 218 seats, meaning even a small shift could change control.
The generic congressional ballot, which measures which party voters prefer nationally, shows Democrats ahead. RealClearPolling’s average for October 9 to 30 puts Democrats at 51.8% and Republicans at 43.3%, a lead of 8.5 points. An NBC News poll conducted from October 28 to 30 showed Democrats leading 52 to 45. Emerson College, polling from October 24 to 26, found a 52 to 42 lead, Reuters/Ipsos 53 to 44, and CBS News 53 to 45. The Harvard-Harris survey showed a narrower margin of 52 to 48. Ballotpedia’s polling index of October 30 also put the Democratic lead at about eight points.
But national numbers do not translate directly into seats. House members are elected in 435 separate districts, and a party can win the national popular vote while still losing individual contests.
In its October 30 ratings, the Cook Political Report classified 222 seats as leaning towards Democrats, 195 towards Republicans and 18 as toss-ups. These figures combine its “solid”, “likely” and “lean” categories and are assessments of competitiveness, not projected results. Cook shifted several districts towards Democrats in the final week of October, and media coverage of its update discussed scenarios in which Democrats could gain between 12 and 25 seats. Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball also moved several Republican-held seats into more competitive categories during October.
Cook lists 14 Republican-held or vacated seats as toss-ups. They include California’s 22nd district, held by David Valadao, Colorado’s 5th, held by Jeff Crank, Iowa’s 2nd, open after Ashley Hinson’s Senate run, and Kentucky’s 6th, vacated by Andy Barr. In Michigan, the 4th district of Bill Huizenga, the 7th of Tom Barrett and the 10th, left open by John James, are all in play. The list also includes Montana’s 1st, vacated by Ryan Zinke, New York’s 17th, held by Mike Lawler, Ohio’s 7th, held by Max Miller, Pennsylvania’s 1st, held by Brian Fitzpatrick, South Carolina’s 1st, Nancy Mace’s former seat, Texas’s 15th, held by Monica De La Cruz, and Virginia’s 1st, held by Rob Wittman.
Four Democratic-held or vacated seats are also toss-ups: Florida’s 14th, held by Kathy Castor, Florida’s 22nd, open after Lois Frankel’s departure, North Carolina’s 1st, held by Don Davis, and Texas’s 35th, open after Greg Casar’s departure. Cook rates three Democratic seats, Alabama’s 2nd, Florida’s 9th and Maine’s 2nd, as leaning Republican, while placing Pennsylvania’s 8th and Ohio’s 9th in the “lean Democrat” column. In a report on October 31, The Washington Post cited Cook’s analysis suggesting that in some scenarios Democrats could reach as many as 240 seats, though these remain projections, not results.
Of the 35 Senate seats up for election, Republicans hold 22 and Democrats 13. Cook rates six Republican seats and one Democratic seat as toss-ups. In Alaska, Republican Senator Dan Sullivan faces Democrat Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman. In Iowa, where Republican Joni Ernst is not running, Republican Ashley Hinson faces Democrat Josh Turek in a race some models show as extremely close. In Kansas, Republican Senator Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton, and in Maine, Republican Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson in a state Democrats carried in the 2024 presidential election.
In Michigan, following Democrat Gary Peters’s retirement, Muslim American Abdul El-Sayed is defending the seat against Republican Mike Rogers. In Ohio’s special election, Republican Senator Jon Husted faces former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown. In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are vying for John Cornyn’s former seat, with several October polls showing a narrow gap. Six of these seven seats are held by Republicans; only Michigan is Democratic.
Elsewhere, Cook rates North Carolina, where former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper faces Republican Michael Whatley for the seat vacated by Thom Tillis, as “likely Democrat”, making it one of the party’s best pickup opportunities. Democrats must also defend their seats in Georgia, where Senator Jon Ossoff faces Republican Mike Collins, in New Hampshire, where Chris Pappas faces Republican John Sununu, and in Minnesota, where Peggy Flanagan faces Republican Michele Tafoya. Cook rates all three as leaning Democratic to varying degrees.
Other notable contests include Florida’s special election, where Ashley Moody faces Democrat Angie Nixon, Nebraska, where Pete Ricketts faces independent Dan Osborn, South Carolina, where Lindsey Graham faces Democrat Annie Andrews, and Mississippi, where Cindy Hyde-Smith faces Scott Colom. Most of the remaining seats are rated safe for their current party. Analysts caution that control of the Senate will hinge on net gains and losses across many races, not on any single state.
In the race for governorships, Republicans currently hold 26 and Democrats 24. Several governors are not running because of term limits or other reasons, opening up a number of contests. Cook rates Georgia, Kansas and Nevada as toss-ups, while Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) places Nevada and Ohio in that category, a difference that shows how much the analytical models diverge.
In Georgia, former Democratic Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms faces Republican Rick Jackson for the seat of term-limited Governor Brian Kemp. In Nevada, Republican Governor Joe Lombardo faces Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford. In Kansas, Democrat Cindy Holscher faces Republican Ty Masterson; Cook rates the race a toss-up, while DDHQ says it leans Republican. In Ohio, Democrat Amy Acton faces Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, a contest DDHQ calls a toss-up and Cook rates as leaning Democratic.
Other competitive races include Alaska, where ranked-choice voting applies, as well as Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Florida, Texas, Oregon and New Hampshire. Cook rates Republican-held Alaska, Iowa and Ohio as leaning Democratic. DDHQ’s overall ratings place 20 of the 36 races on the Democratic side, seven safe, nine likely and four leaning, and 14 on the Republican side, five leaning, four likely and five safe, with two toss-ups. The 14 states not holding elections will keep their current governors.
Early voting has been heavy. According to On Point Politics’ tracker as of November 1, more than 49.4 million ballots had been cast across 47 reporting states, about 23.1 million by mail and 26.3 million in person. In states that report party registration, registered Democrats made up about 40.4% of early voters and registered Republicans about 32.9%, with the rest independents or members of smaller parties.
These figures reflect voters’ registration, not how they voted. Large states such as Texas, California, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia and Washington do not all report the data in the same way, and the numbers offer no indication of how many more people will vote on Election Day.
At its core, the election is a referendum on the first two years of Trump’s second term. Democrats are campaigning on the economy, healthcare, inflation, democratic institutions and federal policy, while Republicans are emphasising immigration, border security, taxes, energy and their party’s governing priorities. The weight of these issues varies from state to state and district to district, and national polls, while pointing to a general trend, are no substitute for local contests.
The results across the House, the Senate and the governors’ mansions will shape federal legislation, budgets, congressional oversight of the presidency and state-level governance for the next two years.
For now, the available evidence shows Democrats ahead nationally in the race for the House, several Republican Senate seats under serious threat and the political balance of a number of states being tested in the governors’ races. The real picture will emerge only once the votes are counted.
