- Pakistan likely to arrange two cargoes during October.
- LNG supplies interruptions affect power generation.
- Pakistan anticipating sharp rise in gas demand during winter.
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s gas supply system received a boost with the arrival of an LNG cargo from Qatar on Tuesday, as the vessel Al-Areesh berthed at Engro’s LNG terminal and regasification began at a rate of 150 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd).
The arrival marks the first LNG cargo received in October, as authorities scramble to arrange additional shipments from Qatar amid disruptions to LNG supplies and continued uncertainty surrounding maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, The News reported, citing a senior official of the Petroleum Division.
Officials are making efforts to secure three LNG cargoes from Qatar with the assistance of Iranian and US officials. However, under the latest supply scenario, Pakistan is expected to arrange only two cargoes during October, similar to the two vessels received in September.
Engro’s LNG terminal had remained non-operational since September 26 because of the unavailability of an LNG vessel. With the arrival of Al-Areesh, regasification has resumed, allowing 150 of re-gasified LNG (RLNG) to be injected into the national gas network.
The situation at the country’s second LNG terminal, operated by Pakistan GasPort Limited (PGPL), remains challenging. The terminal has been non-operational since October 9 due to a lack of LNG inventory.
Authorities expect to arrange another cargo within the next eight to 10 days for delivery to the facility.
The interruption in LNG supplies has already affected fuel availability for power generation. Between October 9 and October 13, no LNG was being regasified at either terminal, leaving the power sector with a supply of only around 38 mmcfd for electricity generation as of October 13. The resumption of operations at Engro’s terminal is expected to provide some relief, with 150 mmcfd of RLNG now entering the system.
Pakistan’s LNG supply outlook remains uncertain following QatarEnergy’s declaration of force majeure on March 4, after Iran attacked Ras Laffan, Qatar’s largest LNG production facility, on March 2.
QatarEnergy has extended the force majeure twice, with the latest extension running until November 6. If the situation in the Strait of Hormuz does not improve, the suspension could be extended further, potentially disrupting LNG imports throughout the winter season.
Any prolonged disruption in LNG imports could place additional pressure on domestic gas supplies, electricity generation and industrial consumers during the peak winter demand period.
Pakistan is anticipating a sharp increase in gas demand during the upcoming winter season, with Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited’s (SNGPL) requirement projected to rise from the existing 500 mmcfd to 1,550 mmcfd. Meanwhile, Sui Southern Gas Company’s (SSGC) demand is expected to increase from 300 mmcfd to 500 mmcfd.
Apart from the LNG shortage, Pakistan’s gas supply system is facing several domestic production and infrastructure-related constraints, according to line-pack data as of October 13. Gas consumption in the fertiliser sector stood at 90 mmcfd on Tuesday, compared with 88 mmcfd a day earlier.
Gas input from MOL’s CPF and GPF facilities fell to 124 mmcfd on October 12 because of an annual turnaround at the plant. The current supply rate stands at 123 mmcfd against a normal level of 160 mmcfd.
Meanwhile, 31 mmcfd of gas supply from the Bettani field has remained suspended since 11:45pm on October 9 following a rupture in the eight-inch Bettani-Kakakhel pipeline near Sheri-Khel village at kilometre 26.5.
Gas production from MEL’s GTH plant also remained below its normal level. The facility supplied 65 mmcf on October 12, compared with its usual output of 70 mmcfd, due to an unspecified operational problem. In another setback, third-party gas supplies of 14.5 mmcfd from MOL’s Mamikhel South well have remained suspended since September 26 because of a problem at the well site.
Additionally, 45 mmcfd of raw gas supply from the Qadirpur field to Liberty Power has remained suspended since September 17 because of non-payment. The combination of limited LNG arrivals, disruptions to domestic gas production and suspended supplies to power generation facilities has added to concerns about Pakistan’s ability to meet its energy requirements during the coming winter.
Although the arrival of Al-Areesh has restored LNG regasification at Engro’s terminal, the continued shutdown of the PGPL terminal and uncertainty over future Qatari shipments leave the overall supply outlook fragile.
