The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecast more rains expected to begin across the country under the monsoon season from today (Friday).
A statement issued by the Met Office said that moist currents are entering the country and are likely to intensify from July 13, while a fresh westerly wave is expected to approach by the evening of the same day.
These developments are expected to trigger widespread rain, wind, and thunderstorms in various parts of the country, with intermittent heavy falls.
Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan: Rain-wind/thundershowers accompanied by scattered heavy, and at times very heavy, rainfall are forecast in Kashmir’s Neelum Valley, Muzaffarabad, Rawalakot, Poonch, Hattian, Bagh, Haveli, Sudhanoti, Kotli, Bhimber and Mirpur between July 11 and 17.
Gilgit-Baltistan and areas within, including Diamir, Astore, Ghizer, Skardu, Hunza, Gilgit, Ghanche and Shigar, are likely to receive rain and thunderstorms with isolated heavy falls on the night of 11th and then from 13th to 16th July.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Rain-wind/thundershowers with scattered heavy falls are expected across most districts including Dir, Chitral, Swat, Kohistan, Malakand, Shangla, Abbottabad, Peshawar, Mardan, Nowshera, Bannu, D.I. Khan, and tribal areas such as Bajaur, Khyber, Orakzai and Waziristan from 11th to 17th July.
Punjab and Islamabad: Widespread rain with occasional heavy to very heavy showers is predicted in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Murree, Attock, Lahore, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Sargodha, and surrounding districts during July 11 and 17.
Southern Punjab areas including Bahawalpur, DG Khan, Multan and Rahimyar Khan are expected to receive isolated heavy falls today and again from July 13 to 17.
Balochistan: Northeastern and southern parts including Quetta, Zhob, Kalat, Khuzdar, Lasbela, Dera Bugti and others are likely to witness rain and thunderstorms with scattered heavy falls today and later again from July 13 to 16.
Sindh: Moderate rain-wind/thundershowers are expected in Karachi, Hyderabad, Larkana, Sukkur, and other districts from July 15 to 17.
Possible impacts and advisories
The PMD has warned that heavy to very heavy rain may trigger flash flooding in local streams and nullahs of Murree, Galliyat, Swat, Dir, Kohistan, Abbottabad, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, and parts of northeast Punjab, Balochistan and Kashmir from July 14 to 17.
Meanwhile, low-lying areas in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Gujranwala, Sialkot, Sargodha, Faisalabad, Nowshera and Peshawar are at a risk of urban flooding between July 13 and 17.
The Met Office further said that the hilly areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Murree, Galliyat, Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan may face landslides or mudslides causing road closures.
Moreover, strong winds and lightning may damage weak structures, electric poles, billboards, vehicles and solar panels.
The PMD has advised farmers to plan activities accordingly and urged travellers and tourists to avoid unnecessary visits to vulnerable areas. All concerned departments have been instructed to stay alert and take precautionary measures to mitigate risks.
NEOC issues flood alert
The National Emergencies Operation Centre (NEOC) of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has issued a hydrological outlook and an impact-based weather alert for the period from July 13 to 17, warning of potential flooding and heavy rainfall across several parts of the country.
According to the NEOC, moderate to heavy monsoon rains are expected due to increased moisture from the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, combined with an approaching westerly wave system. This weather pattern is likely to cause increased flows in all major rivers, including the Indus, Kabul, Jhelum (upstream of Mangla), and Chenab.
The alert noted that Tarbela, Taunsa, and Guddu barrages are currently at low flood levels, while Kalabagh and Chashma are experiencing medium flood levels. Taunsa Barrage is expected to rise to a medium flood level during the forecast period.
Similarly, the River Chenab at Marala and Khanki, and the River Kabul at Nowshera, are expected to reach low flood levels.
Rain-induced swelling is also anticipated in River Swat and River Panjkora, along with their tributaries and associated nullahs. In southern Punjab, torrential flows in the hill torrents of Dera Ghazi Khan and Rajanpur are likely to reactivate, potentially reaching medium to high flood levels.
The NEOC further warned of high flows in streams and nullahs in northeastern Balochistan districts such as Jhal Magsi, Kachhi, Sibi, Qila Saifullah, Zhob, and Musakhel. Localised flash flooding is also expected in river networks of southern Balochistan, including Khuzdar, Awaran, Lasbela, and Qalat.
As of now, Tarbela Dam is at 74% storage capacity, while Mangla Dam is at 44%.
In view of the situation, the NDMA has advised residents living near rivers, streams, and nullahs to remain vigilant, particularly during heavy rains and at night. Communities in flood-prone areas have been urged to identify safe evacuation routes, move valuables and livestock to higher ground, and prepare emergency kits with food, water, and medicine for three to five days.
The NDMA has also directed district administrations, particularly in northeastern and central Punjab, to ensure that dewatering equipment is ready to manage urban flooding caused by heavy downpours.
The public has been strongly urged to stay updated through official flood alerts via television, radio, SMS, and the Pak NDMA Disaster Alert mobile application. Citizens are advised to avoid crossing low-lying bridges, causeways, and flooded roads during the forecast period.
The NDMA confirmed that it remains in close coordination with all relevant authorities to monitor the evolving situation and issue timely alerts.
