Texas, which has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994 and has backed the Republican candidate in every presidential election since 1980, may be on the verge of a historic political shift.
Polls released ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections suggest that a state Republicans have dominated for three decades could turn partly, or even fully, blue.
Analysts attribute the change largely to President Donald Trump’s policies, particularly his sweeping immigration crackdown and mounting economic pressure on working families.
In 2024, Hispanic voters in Texas backed Trump by roughly 10 points. That trend now appears to have reversed.
A recent poll by the Cook Political Report and TelevisaUnivision found Hispanic voters favouring Democrat James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton in the Senate race by 63% to 30%. In the governor’s race, they backed Democrat Gina Hinojosa over Abbott by 60% to 33%.
The same survey put Trump’s approval among Hispanic voters at just 33%. Nearly two-thirds said they were less likely to support a candidate who backs his deportation policy.
Senate seat slipping away
The swing has left Republicans at risk of losing a US Senate seat they have long taken for granted.
Talarico leads Paxton, the state’s attorney general, by 49% to 46.5% in the RealClearPolling average. A New York Times/Siena poll put him ahead by 50% to 43%, although a Trafalgar Group survey showed the two candidates tied at 48% each.
Abbott under pressure
Republicans are also nervous about the governor’s mansion. Abbott commands vast resources and influence: state records show his campaign committee had spent more than $54.5m by August and held more than $67m in cash, while Hinojosa had spent less than $4m.
Despite that financial advantage, Abbott leads by just 2.3 points in the RealClearPolling average, 49.7% to 47.4%. New York Times/Siena and AtlasIntel polls both show Hinojosa ahead by one point.
Turnout is likely to be decisive. Hispanic and younger voters have historically stayed home in larger numbers during midterm elections.
If Hispanic citizens and voters from other immigrant-background communities turn out in force on Tuesday, Texas could turn blue for the first time in nearly 30 years.
Betting on democracy
As voters head to the polls, wagering on the results has reached record levels.
On the prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, contracts worth about $479m have changed hands across five major election markets. Roughly $166.4m was traded on the balance of power in both chambers of Congress, about $150m on control of the House of Representatives, and more than $50m on control of the Senate.
The two Texas races alone drew about $111.8m: $92m on the Senate contest and $19.8m on the governor’s race.
The markets, too, are leaning towards the Democrats. On Kalshi, a contract on a Talarico victory was trading at about 74 cents, against 27 cents for Paxton. In the governor’s race, Abbott’s implied chance of winning fell from 66% to between 59% and 62%, while Hinojosa’s rose from 34% to between 38% and 41%.
Nationally, Kalshi put the Democrats’ chances of winning the House at about 93% and the Senate at 76%.
Market odds, however, are not vote shares. They reflect the expectations of buyers and sellers and can change at any moment. The headline figures also represent total trading volume, including contracts resold many times, rather than cash staked at a single point in time.
Kalshi operates under the oversight of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Supporters say such markets offer an extra signal about the state of a race. Critics warn that betting on elections risks turning the democratic process into a game of profit and loss.
On Tuesday, voters will choose their representatives. By the end of the night, the fortunes of those who have staked millions on the result will be decided too.
