A new research forecast has revealed when thousands of glaciers around the world will collapse as a result of climate change.
The study conducted by ETH Zurich, has for the very first time predicted how many of the world’s glaciers would survive by the end of this century.
According to findings, if global temperatures rise to +4.0 °C, only 18,000 glaciers worldwide would only survive. On the other hand, if the world would be successful in limiting global warming to +1.5 °C, roughly 100,000 glaciers could be preserved.
Looming peak glacier extinction point
In study, the researchers also identified a critical turning point called Peak Glacier Extinction, defined as a single year when the highest number of individual glaciers will vanish.
For a global timeline, the peak loss is expected around 2041 if warming is capped at +1.5 °C. Under extreme temperatures of +4°C, the peak shifts to 2055, with losses doubling from 2000 to 4000 glaciers per year.
More worryingly, Central Europe is on the front lines, with its peak loss expected even sooner, between 2033 and 2041.
“The results underline how urgently ambitious climate action is needed,” said Daniel Farinotti, co-author of the study and Professor of Glaciology at ETH Zurich.
A near-total collapse in Alps
The projections for the European Alps are more threatening as per study. If the temperatures follow the current path of +2.7 °C, only 110 glaciers would remain by 2100. In the worst case scenario characterized by high global temperatures, only 20 glaciers could survive in the region.
While talking about the consequences of glaciers’ collapse, Van Tricht said, “The melting of a small glacier hardly contributes to rising seas. But when a glacier disappears completely, it can severely impact tourism in a valley.”
He continued, “ Every glacier is tied to a place, a story and people who feel its loss. That’s why we work both to protect the glaciers that remain and to keep alive the memory of those that are gone.”
