- Electricity tariff rebasing for Discos takes effect on Jan 1, 2027.
- Power purchase price ranges from Rs25.883 to Rs29.255 per unit.
- Nepra schedules public hearing on price projections for Nov 3.
Pakistan’s power purchase price (PPP) could reach Rs27.309 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2027, with the Central Power Purchasing Agency-Guarantee Limited (CPPA-G) projecting total procurement costs of Rs3.55 trillion under its base-case scenario for the upcoming tariff rebasing.
The projections form part of the rebasing of consumer-end electricity tariffs for ex-Wapda distribution companies (XWDISCOs), scheduled to take effect from January 1, 2027. The exercise will determine the revised reference costs underpinning electricity tariffs for the new period, The News reported on Tuesday.
According to CPPA-G’s forecast, the projected power purchase price ranges from Rs25.883 per unit under the ideal scenario to Rs29.255 per unit under the second-worst-case scenario, highlighting the potential impact of fuel costs, exchange-rate movements and capacity payments on the electricity supply chain.
The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) has scheduled a public hearing on the projections for Nov 3, 2026, at 2pm at Nepra Tower, with participation also available online through Zoom. Interested and affected parties have been invited to submit their comments and objections.
Under the base case, CPPA-G has assumed annual electricity demand growth of 2.60%, an exchange rate of Rs279 per US dollar and electricity sales of 130,081 gigawatt-hours (GWh) to distribution companies.
Capacity charges account for the largest share of the projected cost, estimated at Rs1.91 trillion, equivalent to Rs14.717 per unit. Fuel costs are projected at Rs1.32 trillion, or Rs10.141 per unit, while variable operations and maintenance expenses are estimated at Rs70.58 billion, equivalent to Rs0.543 per unit.
Transmission-related costs and Ministry of Finance charges are projected at a combined Rs248.30 billion, or Rs1.909 per unit. The forecast indicates that capacity payments will remain a major component of electricity procurement costs, while fuel expenses and currency movements could further influence the overall price during CY27.
In the two worst-case scenarios, the rupee is assumed to weaken to Rs290 against the US dollar, compared with Rs279 per dollar in the other scenarios. Under these assumptions, the projected purchase price rises to Rs28.835 per unit in Worst Case-I and Rs29.255 per unit in Worst Case-II.
The demand-sensitivity scenario, meanwhile, assumes annual demand growth of just 0.70pc, reducing electricity sales to 127,937 GWh. Under this scenario, the projected purchase price stands at Rs27.568 per unit, reflecting the effect of lower sales volumes and revised capacity-cost assumptions.
A separate scenario examining the mix of re-gasified liquefied natural gas (RLNG) and gas places the projected purchase price at Rs26.441 per unit, while the ideal scenario estimates the cost at Rs25.883 per unit, primarily reflecting lower fuel expenses.
Across all six scenarios, the assumptions include a Karachi Interbank Offered Rate (KIBOR) of 11.70pc, a Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) of 3.98pc, USA inflation of 2.10pc, domestic inflation of 8.20pc and National Grid Company (NGC) losses of 2.50pc.
The projected power purchase price will be subject to regulatory scrutiny as part of the rebasing process. The forecast should not be interpreted as the final retail electricity tariff, which will depend on Nepra’s determinations and the applicable taxes, duties, subsidies and other tariff components.
The November 3 hearing is expected to provide an opportunity for stakeholders to present their views on the assumptions and cost projections that will inform the revised consumer-end tariff framework from January 2027 (GWh) to distribution companies.
