The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 11.5% on Monday as policymakers weighed elevated inflation, uncertain oil prices and the economic impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict.
The decision was in line with market expectations. Ismail Iqbal Securities had said earlier that market participants widely expected the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to keep the policy rate unchanged.
An Ismail Iqbal Securities client survey showed that 87% of participants expected the SBP to keep the policy rate unchanged, while the remaining 13% anticipated a 50-basis-point hike.
The brokerage also said it expected the central bank to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, citing the recent rebound in oil prices and heightened geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. It said the SBP was likely to await greater clarity on external risks and inflation dynamics before considering any change in its monetary policy stance.
At its previous meeting, the SBP had also left the key interest rate unchanged at 11.5%, saying policymakers were assessing the impact of the Middle East conflict on inflation and growth.
Today’s decision was the first MPC meeting under the SBP’s advance calendar for FY2026-27. The next monetary policy decision is scheduled for September 14.
The SBP has also increased the frequency of post-MPC press conferences from two to four times a year, with the governor’s briefings to follow meetings in July, October, January and April.
